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The main aim of the current article is to compare economic and Quality of Life (QL) indices in G7- (Germany, France, United States, United Kingdom, Japan, Italy and Canada) and BRICS-member countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The research was developed based on selecting indices available in the NUMBEO, UN (United Nations) and OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) databases. Results have evidenced that emerging countries belonging to the BRICS bloc have shown lower QL indices than those observed for developed countries in the G7 bloc. With respect to economic data, the USA, China, Japan and Germany were the countries presenting the highest GDP growth. It was possible concluding that countries belonging to the G7 block have better economic and labor indices, which, in their turn, are associated with better QoL indices.
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The present work is based on a hypothesis that the Czech economy was showing signs of economic deceleration and a potential slump into deeper growth problems way before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, i.e., at least in the year 2019. However, the present text does not intend to thoroughly confirm this hypothesis because in order to do so, a longer timeline of key economic indicators needs to be analysed. What it does present is at least a partial argumentation supporting the abovementioned hypothesis and some basic calculations. It proposes two ways towards its confirmation. The first one is a comparative analysis of individual - especially European - economies' response to subsiding external influences, i.e., to the weakening of the effects of the pandemic on the economy. The second way is at least a partial analysis of key macroeconomic indicators from the time before and during the pandemic, with an emphasis on detectable divergences in the development. The conclusion of our research is the finding that as early as in 2019, the Czech economy was showing signs of imminent deceleration of growth, which would probably have turned into stagnation and possibly a certain decrease in economic activity. The conclusions indicate that the reason behind such development was a massive but in fact little effective investment activity in the Czech economic environment, which is historically related to the structure of the economy and to the position of the Czech industrial sector in supplier relationships. Two related phenomena arise from that: firstly, a relatively low labour productivity, with producers domiciled in the Czech Republic reaching quite a low volume of value added, and secondly a massive capital outflow in the form of profits paid to parent companies abroad. The final part of the paper outlines some potentially effective steps which might lead - under favourable circumstances - to restructuring processes in the Czech economy. Due to the date of finishing the research, the paper does not include the consequences of the War in Ukraine.
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Socio-economic inequality may be addressed at a different scale. Its impact at a micro and macro level on very many social issues is well-known, as well as its effects on global development being extensively reported in literature, where inequality is often seen as a clear barrier on the path to a sustainable development. That becomes extremely critical in light of major global challenges, such as climate change. The quantification of inequality in the different contexts, its interpretation, as well as its impact on society at a different level are object of major interest and discussion within the scientific community. Inspired by the famous African proverb "if you want to go fast go alone;If you want to go far go together", we propose an indicator-Walking Together Indicator (WTI), based on a simple model to foster transparency and broad communication. It relies on the statistical standard deviation to facilitate the measurement of inequality looking at single metrics (e.g., GDP) as well as considering broad categories (e.g., Economy) composed of multiple indicators. Despite evident limitations, simplifications (context-less comparison among countries) and approximations (significant lack of data), the study conducted on well-known macro indicators presents a fundamental coherence in the result. Indeed, it shows a reducing inequality in the main trends. On the other side, the performed computations also point out a relevant exception for the main economic indicator, which is characterised, overall, by an increasing inequality among the considered countries. Such a contrasting trend is partially explainable looking at the simplifications in the model, which neither considers dependencies among indicators nor assumes weighting. The indicator provides a very encouraging and optimistic figure. However, the recent pandemic has shown a world running at different speeds. It advises a more conservative interpretation of the indicator as the exception related to economy is relevant.
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PurposeThe conceptualization of the Base of Pyramid (BOP) proposes that low-income markets can lead to profitable opportunities for businesses. The purpose of this study is to identify key success factors of a BOP business strategy based on a case study of the discount retailer, Dollar General, in the USA.Design/methodology/approachThe research design used in this research is an in-depth case study of Dollar General in the USA. Qualitative methods are applied in both the primary and secondary data collection and during the follow-on data analysis of Dollar General.FindingsDollar General's strategic profile is achieved through the combination of the following four actions which are tailored to compete effectively at the BOP in the USA: creating the neighborhood discounter, raising aspirational appeal, reducing service and eliminating internationalization.Research limitations/implicationsThe case is specific to Dollar General in a US cultural context.Practical implicationsThe case of Dollar General demonstrates how a discounter retailer should not only follow a low-cost strategy to compete at the BOP. Its ability to craft a distinctive strategy is coherent with meeting the logistical, rational and emotional needs of the low-income consumer in the USA.Social implicationsMany businesses have neglected rural areas of the USA as being unprofitable. The ability for businesses such as Dollar General to serve the BOP segment can foster the socio-economic well-being of communities.Originality/valueThe overwhelming body of the BOP literature is based on emerging markets. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is one of the few studies to investigate BOP business strategy in the USA.
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Forecasting stock markets is an important challenge due to leptokurtic distributions with heavy tails due to uncertainties in markets, economies, and political fluctuations. To forecast the direction of stock markets, the inclusion of leading indicators to volatility models is highly important;however, such series are generally at different frequencies. The paper proposes the GARCH-MIDAS-LSTM model, a hybrid method that benefits from LSTM deep neural networks for forecast accuracy, and the GARCH-MIDAS model for the integration of effects of low-frequency variables in high-frequency stock market volatility modeling. The models are being tested for a forecast sample including the COVID-19 shut-down after the first official case period and the economic reopening period in in Borsa Istanbul stock market in Türkiye. For this sample, significant uncertainty existed regarding future economic expectations, and the period provided an interesting laboratory to test the forecast effectiveness of the proposed LSTM augmented model in addition to GARCH-MIDAS models, which included geopolitical risk, future economic expectations, trends, and cycle industrial production indices as low-frequency variables. The evidence suggests that stock market volatility is most effectively modeled with geopolitical risk, followed by industrial production, and a relatively lower performance is achieved by future economic expectations. These findings imply that increases in geopolitical risk enhance stock market volatility further, and that industrial production and future economic expectations work in the opposite direction. Most importantly, the forecast results suggest suitability of both the GARCH-MIDAS and GARCH-MIDAS-LSTM models, and with good forecasting capabilities. However, a comparison shows significant root mean squared error reduction with the novel GARCH-MIDAS-LSTM model over GARCH-MIDAS models. Percentage decline in root mean squared errors for forecasts are between 39% to 95% in LSTM augmented models depending on the type of economic indicator used. The proposed approach offers a key tool for investors and policymakers.
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PurposeThe unemployment rate (UR) is the leading macroeconomic indicator used in the credit card loss forecasting. COVID-19 pandemic has caused an unprecedented level of volatility in the labor market variables, leading to new challenges to use UR in the credit risk modeling framework. This paper examines the dynamic relationship between the credit card charge-off rate and the unemployment rate over time.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses quarterly observations of charge-off rates on credit card loans of all commercial banks from Q1 1990 to Q4 2020. Univariate, multivariable, machine learning, and regime-switching time series modeling are employed in this research.FindingsThe authors decompose UR into two components – temporary and permanent UR. The authors find the spike in UR during COVID-19 is mainly attributed to the surge in temporary layoffs. More importantly, the authors find that the credit card charge-off rate is primarily driven by permanent UR while temporary UR has little predictive power. During recessions, permanent UR seems to be a stronger indicator than total UR. This research highlights the importance of using permanent UR for credit risk modeling.Originality/valueThe findings in the research can be applied to the credit card loss forecasting and CECL reserve models. In addition, this research also has implications for banks, macroeconomic data vendors, regulators, and policymakers.
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On 11 March 2020, COVID-19, which started in Wuhan (China), was declared a pandemic. Since then, casualties have been increasing and have not ceased. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the Ecuadorian mining industry and to identify the capacities and weaknesses caused by the sanitary crisis. For this purpose, the study was structured in four stages: (a) bibliographic review of organizations at the international level;(b) collection of local data (surveys and interviews);(c) multi-criteria analysis, and (d) selection of social and economic indicators that can be replicated in Ecuador's mining sector. International data indicated notable progress in the social, health, and safety areas but less in the labor-economic aspect. Surveys and interviews showed the different impacts of COVID-19 in Ecuador's mining sector, and multi-criteria analysis along with social and economic indicators served as a reference for recommendations to improve the weaknesses detected and reinforcing the strengths of the sector. The Ecuadorian scenario is different from the one abroad;companies presented more social and economic information and less about health and safety than international companies. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.
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East Asia has received much attention due to the extraordinary economic transition which led much of the region to a more balanced growth despite the 1997 Asian financial crisis. In search of a common development model for sub-Saharan Africa, an extensive examination of the economic growth from East Asia is compared from 1965 to 2015. Focusing mainly on economic growth features and differences in selected East Asian and sub-Saharan African countries, a comparative analysis investigates the patterns of development and identifies major economic indicators. A review of East Asia's transition looks at the historical and socioeconomic evolution of key sectors that contribute to different development model strategies in the region. This chapter centers on questions that try to identify positive indicators as well as reasons to how East Asia developed, the rapidity of the development, and if there is a unified development model. Post-Second World War research catalogs how East Asian countries mobilized towards industrialization by engaging their populations using effective public policies. Comparatively, sub-Saharan African countries, dating back to the same period, were considered among those with growth potential. Since then, they face underutilization of economic growth, inappropriate fiscal reform, and low human capital investment—attributing to the poor economic performance and growth seen over the review period. A secondary examination explores the case of South Korea and Nigeria as representative countries of the two subregions. These countries help to identify critical economic growth deviation and suggest possible growth enhancement policies for sub-Saharan Africa. By examining economic growth divergence, lessons are drawn out and development strategies highlighted. Key facets of South Korea's development model are described including the increase in labor force, investment in capital, export led growth, technological advancement, and top-down reform policies. Nigeria's economic performance factors point to a lack of development of the financial markets with limited size and stability, poor productivity of human resources in every sector of the economy, and ineffective institutional order correlating with high corruption and a shadow economy of 50% of gross domestic product. Recommendations center on developing other sectors of the economy and increasing domestic demand to serve as a security measure. This can aid in protecting the economy from potential global market shocks, e.g., the COVID-19 crisis, strengthen budgetary control to improve fiscal solvency, and maintain a low external debt profile to reduce government expenditure on debt servicing. To this end, the restructuring and optimization of trade through the reduction of imports, and exports expansion for more efficient trade balance could aid economic diversification and stabilize financial and healthy fiscal policies—reinforcing sub-Saharan Africa's economic future and stressing country-specific development as a way forward. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
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The COVID-19 virus pandemic has led to huge changes in the business of many companies. Managers and owners of companies were most affected, so in one segment of this paper, certain psychological ways that are available to people when it comes to overcoming various crises. Considering that profitable business is a condition for the survival of companies, in this paper, a comparison of profitability in the production of organic and conventional food was performed. ROA and ROE were calculated on a sample of 150 food producers in our country for the period from 2016 to 2020. The results showed that ROA is higher in conventional food producers, while ROE is higher in organic food producers. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the profitability of food producers is higher than in the period before its outbreak. Also, there is a tendency to increase profitability in both types of production.
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COVID 19 became a global epidemic with new uncertainties and significant consequences. The highest number of cases was observed in the United States, followed by Europe and Southeast Asia. Many sectors downsized or were otherwise hit hard by the pandemic. Governments focused on fighting the disease and mitigating its effects on their economies and health systems. This study examined how countries in the European region and the U.S. were prepared to cope with COVID-19 and its effects on their economies and health systems. After comparing economic growth, the Global Health Security Index, Stringency Index, and health inputs of these countries, it was found that many European nations and the U.S. were not fully prepared for global epidemics. The study results also show that the sharpest contraction in the national economies occurred in the second quarter of 2020.
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PurposeBy considering the rapid and continuous increase of housing prices in Turkey recently, this study aims to examine the determinants of the residential property price index (RPPI). In this context, a total of 12 explanatory (3 macroeconomic, 8 markets and 1 pandemic) variables are included in the analysis. Moreover, the residential property price index for new dwellings (NRPPI) and the residential property price index for old dwellings (ORPPI) are considered for robustness checks.Design/methodology/approachA quantile regression (QR) model is used to examine the main determinants of RPPI in Turkey. A monthly time series data set for the period between January 2010 and October 2020 is included. Moreover, NRPPI and ORPPI are examined for robustness.FindingsPredictions for RPPI, NRPPI and ORPPI are carried out separately at the country (Turkey) level. The results show that market variables are more important than macroeconomic variables;the pandemic and rent have the highest effect on the indices;The effects of the explanatory variables on housing prices do not change much from low to high levels, the COVID-19 pandemic and weighted average cost of funding have a decreasing effect on indices while other variables have an increasing effect in low quantiles;the pandemic and monetary policy indicators have a negative and significant effect in low quantiles whereas they are not effective in high quantiles;the results for RPPI, NRPPI and ORPPI are consistent and robust.Research limitations/implicationsThe results of the study emphasize the importance of the pandemic, rent, monetary policy indicators and interest rates on the indices, respectively. On the other hand, focusing solely on Turkey and excluding global variables is the main limitation of this study. Therefore, the authors encourage researchers to work on other emerging countries by considering global variables. Hence, future studies may extend this study.Practical implicationsThe COVID-19 pandemic and market variables are determined as influential variables on housing prices in Turkey whereas macroeconomic variables are not effective, which does not mean that macroeconomic variables can be fully ignored. Hence, the main priority should be on focusing on market variables by also considering the development in macroeconomic variables.Social implicationsEmerging countries can make housing prices stable and affordable, which will increase homeownership. Hence, they can benefit from stability in housing markets.Originality/valueThe QR method is performed for the first time to examine housing prices in Turkey at the country level according to the existing literature. The results obtained from the QR analysis and policy implications can also be used by other emerging countries that would like to increase homeownership to provide better living conditions to citizens by making housing prices stable and keeping them under control. Hence, countries can control housing prices and stimulate housing affordability for citizens.
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PurposeThis paper aims to identify the economic stimulus measures that ensure stability of the Lithuanian housing market in the event of an economic shock.Design/methodology/approachThe econometric analysis includes stationarity test, Granger causality test, correlation analysis, autoregressive distributed lag models and cointegration analysis using ARDL bounds testing.FindingsThe econometric modelling reveals that the housing price in Lithuania correlates with quarterly changes in the gross domestic product and approves that the cycles of the real estate market are related to the economic cycles. Economic stimulus measures should mainly focus on stabilizing the economics, preserving the cash and deposits of households, as well as consumer spending in the case of economic shock.Originality ValueThis study is beneficial for policy makers to make decisions to maintain stability in the housing market in the event of any economic shock.
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Purpose: The aim of this paper is to explore the changes in the ICT and global value chains (GVCs) after the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach: This study compared the difference between Korea' domestic ICT industries, ICT imports and ICT exports before and after the COVID-19 outbreak by using trade data of ICT products and national economic indicators, and presents growth strategy for the ICT industry in the post-COVID 19 era. For this purpose, this study determined the causalities between Korea's imports/exports of ICT products and composite Indexes before and after COVID-19, and derived implications in the ICT industry environment after the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings: Analysis results showed the following changes in Korea's ICT industry in the post-COVID-19 world. (1) Non-face-to-face and contact-free technologies related sectors in the ICT industry, such as the semiconductor sector, have grown exponentially;(2) as the USA has grown as the new key player, the causal relationship with China, a key player of the GVC in the pre-COVID-19 era, disappeared;and (3) the GVC of the ICT industry is not a rigid one-way vertical structure, but is changing to a flexible structure influenced by cooperation and competition between countries. Originality/value: The results indicate that it is essential to constantly develop new ICT sectors that make use of non-face-to-face and contact-free technologies in the post-COVID-19 era, and the main strategies in response to the changed GVC would be taking the initiative by securing source technologies and expanding through cooperation with other GVCs and resource sharing. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.
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The main aim of this paper is to analyse and estimate the behaviour of the Spanish economic activity in the next 12 months, by means of a Real-Time Leading Economic Indicator (RT-LEI), based on Google Trends, and the real GDP. We apply methodologies based on fractional integration and cointegration to measure the degree of persistence and to examine the long-term relationship. Finally, we carry out a forecast using a Machine Learning model based on an Artificial Neural Network. Our results indicate that the Spanish economy will experience a contraction in 1Q-21 and will require strong measures to reverse the situation and recover the original trend.
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L/umber futures have been traded at Chicago Mercantile Exchange since 1969 (Mehrotra and Carter 2017). Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the lumber futures price has experienced huge volatility. The unusual fluctuations exposed lumber futures products that were originally designed to hedge uncertainties to huge risks. [...]there is an urgent need to find a reliable method to predict the lumber futures price, which would help enterprises and investors hedge risks and make correct decisions in the market. [...]Google Trends index is widely used to predict economic indicators and socioeconomic indicators, such as sales, unemployment, travel, consumer confidence (Choi and Varian 2012), consumer behavior (Carriere-Swallow and Labbe 2013), housing market (Dietzel 2016), the stock price (Hu et al. 2018), and so on. [...]the components of variables will change to capture dynamic trends of the real world.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely influenced economies around the world through supply and demand channels. The increasing uncertainty and the decreasing demand due to the strict social measures of the government to cushion the spread of the pandemic have transformed COVID-19 from a health crisis into an economic crisis. To moderate the negative economic atmosphere during this period, the governments have implemented expansionary fiscal policy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impacts of the social and economic measures taken during COVID-19 on the volatility of sovereign credit default swaps for Turkey, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The empirical findings indicate that social distancing measures increase uncertainty, but health and economic policies moderate the negative impacts on the economy of Turkey, Spain, and the United Kingdom. The impact of the policies in question is greater in the high number of case regimes.
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The COVID 19 pandemic has once again exposed a number of important risks and problems for the world's economies. Although the present analyzes in the literature are more and more often aggregated between fields, emphasizing the capacity of digitalization and international relations to improve the transition to the circular economy, resilience speaks not only of positive aspects but also of vulnerabilities. Thus, the article deals with the link between vulnerabilities and capacities of the socio-economic domain at EU27 level. The study uses Eurostat data for the period 2011-2020, systematized in the panel form. The results once again demonstrate the need to strengthen public support for health and education, for research and development, in order to reduce socio-economic vulnerabilities at EU27 level, demonstrating the need to correlate policy efforts with results.
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How do we define full employment? It depends on things such as demographics and the particulars of why or why not people are looking for work. Also, have we achieved full employment when some groups are clearly not fully employed? The behavior of earnings and hours also need to be considered. In the US, some groups are not fully employed. Europe appears to be fully employed, but that in part reflects reductions in hours. China shows a substantial mismatch where skilled youth have problems in finding appropriate jobs. Finally, in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, there is sharp difference between the labor markets for nationals and non-nationals.
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. Small scale handline tuna fishery is an important livelihood for the coastal communities in Buru Island which includes Buru and South Buru Regency. Information regarding the livelihood condition of the tuna handline fishery in Buru Island is still limited. This situation is increasingly complex, due to the COVID-19 pandemic which impacted the communities livelihood, due a significant decrease of the prices and demand. Understanding of socioeconomic conditions is important for planning and developing policies and programs for sustainable fisheries. The study aimed to assess the socioeconomic conditions of tuna handline fisheries in Buru Island, including the costs-revenues balance and the fishers' income. Data collection was carried out in March-August 2020 in Buru and South Buru Regency. This study showed that the average revenue, gross profit and income of fishers during the pandemic period decreased by 39.05, 66.26 and 63.22%, respectively, compared to the situation in 2019.
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Diversos estudios bioarqueológicos han mostrado que las pandemias tienen un impacto muy relevante en el incremento de las desigualdades preexistentes. Una preocupación importante durante el periodo de propagación del COVID-19 fue que su impacto económico pudiera afectar de manera desproporcionada a los segmentos más vulnerables de la población. Un problema habitual con las medidas de desigualdad es que su cálculo se produce con bastante retraso y de forma muy infrecuente. En este artículo presentamos una metodología pionera para analizar la evolución de la desigualdad en tiempo real que permite reajustar las acciones de política económica para mitigar el impacto de un shock de desarrollo rápido, como la pandemia, sobre la desigualdad. Este trabajo es fruto de un proyecto pionero de colaboración público-privada entre la Universitat Pompeu Fabra-IPEG y el Departamento de Investigación de CaixaBank. Los resultados muestran el enorme aumento de la desigualdad que se produjo durante los primeros meses de la pandemia y el efecto que tuvieron los ERTE en la mitigación de dicho aumento. A principios de 2022 la desigualdad había vuelto al nivel prepandémico tanto en términos agregados como por subgrupos de la población.Alternate :Several bio-archaeological studies have shown that pandemics have a very significant impact on the increase in pre-existing inequalities. A major concern during the period of spread of COVID-19 was that its economic impact could disproportionately affect the most vulnerable segments of the population A common problem with inequality measures is that their calculation is produced with considerable delay and very low frequency. In this article, we present a pioneering methodology to analyze the evolution of inequality in real time that allows economic policy actions to be readjusted to mitigate the impact of a rapidly developing shock, such as the pandemic, on inequality. This work is the result of an innovative public-private collaboration project between the Universitat Pompeu Fabra-IPEG and the CaixaBank research department. The results show the enormous increase in inequality that occurred during the first months of the pandemic, and the effect that ERTE had in mitigating this increase. By early 2022, inequality had returned to the pre-pandemic level both at the aggregate level and by population subgroups.